It takes 2 to tango

24 hours is a long time in politics, what more 24 weeks leading to December 2008. And over the last 24 days there has been much realignment in Malaysian politics. But can Anwar Ibrahim change this equation even more by convincing 24 Members of Parliament from Sabah and Sarawak to cross over to Pakatan Rakyat? If he can then he needs only ten more or so from Umno to join Pakatan Rakyat so that he can form the new federal government.

Yes, the direction and final outcome of Malaysian politics is subject to the moves of many political heavyweights. Anwar Ibrahim, Dr M, Daim , PM, DPM, Mrs. DPM, MY; they all have a bearing on what we are going to see come Christmas Day 2008. One person’s move changes the equation even further. And if everyone makes a move one can only guess what the final outcome will be.

In the meantime, Anwar is going to court to get his September 1998 sacking as DPM declared illegal and a violation of the Federal Constitution of Malaysia. If he succeeds then PM has to reinstate him as Malaysia’s DPM, by order of the court. But Malaysia already has a DPM.
Yes, but if the current is forced to resign because of his wife’s implication in the Altantuya murder, and if it can be proven that his office is involved, then he's dead meat and there will be a vacancy for the post of DPM of Malaysia.

Daim, however, does not want PM to retire just yet. He needs PM around until at least 2010 because it will take him two years to slowly bring back RM3 billion in cash. Yes, more than ten years ago, RM3 billion in RM500 and RM1,000 notes were smuggled out to Indonesia. When Dr M found out he discontinued the usage of RM500 and RM1,000 notes. So the money is now stuck. The notes can, of course, be brought back, but they can’t be used in the open market. Instead, you have to send them to Bank Negara to be changed into smaller notes. And this is where the problem lies. How to bring back RM3 billion in RM500 and RM1,000 notes unless you do it over two years and unless the Finance Minister cum Prime Minister gives his permission for Bank Negara to accept them? So Daim has to ensure that the Finance Minister cum Prime Minister stays on at least until 2010 when the entire RM3 billion can be safely brought back and sent to Bank Negara for conversion into smaller notes. And to ensure that the Finance Minister cum Prime Minister is not kicked out of office, Daim is prepared to spend half the amount to defeat the challengers like TR and M.

TR is not to be discounted just yet either. Over the last few months he has been making his rounds to the Umno branches and he appears to be gaining support. While Daim backs PM, Dr M pressures DPM to bring PM down, PM checks DPM, Anwar makes a bid to get back his DPM’s job and probably becomes the next Prime Minister as well, M ding-dongs between both sides, and much more, TR is slowly and successfully convincing the Umno grass-root that he is the White Knight who will save Umno from itself.

RPK